Jeff Boggis of FantasySportsEmpires.com Draft Analysis

Battle of the Fantasy Gods fantasy baseball draft - January 5, 2009

Jeff Boggis "The Sultan of Stats" of Fantasy Sports Empires participated in the 2009 Battle of the Fantasy Gods fantasy baseball league draft last night on January 5th. This league was formed by Mike "The Fantasy Man" Kuchera who continues to make a name for him in the fantasy baseball hemisphere. Mike is persistent and is passionate about his work.

I had the 9th pick in a 12 team, 23 rounds, mixed league, fantasy baseball draft. The rules are pretty simple: There are weekly transactions, no maximum innings pitched, and we start the following lineups: 2 catchers, 1B, 2B, SS, SB, CI, MI, 5 outfielders, DH, and 9 pitchers.

The draft was hosted by Geoff Stein of Mock Draft Central and he had the 10th pick of the draft. Geoff and I have similar draft strategies and like most of the same players, so it was difficult drafting next to him. The 8th team in the draft was on auto draft, so that always skews the results.

My overall draft strategy is to draft power in the first 5 rounds, and closers/starting pitchers in every other round after round 5. You just can't find a power hitter with the potential of hitting 35+ home runs in the middle to late rounds, but there is always the potential of finding a great starting pitcher or closer later in the draft.
With the 9th pick in the first round of the draft, I was targeting either Ryan Braun or Ryan Howard. I call it "Ryan's Hope." I ended up with the choice of either players and I went with Ryan Braun due to his great numbers across the board, and adds batting average and stolen bases. In rounds 2-5 I was looking for the same thing, but was willing to add value when it was there for the taking. Ironically, that happened more than I expected in this draft. My draft strategy turned out to not be my strategy whatsoever in the draft. Let me explain.

In round 2 I stayed the course with going with a solid power hitter. I was targeting the likes of Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano, but low and behold, Josh Hamilton was available in round 2, pick 4 (pick 16 overall). I drafted Hamilton without reservation, yet some of the other draft attendees instant messaged that they were avoiding Hamilton this season, that he killed them the during the 2nd half of the season. CBS projects Hamilton as their 8th best hitter with 36 home runs, 126 RBIs, 11 stolen bases, 103 runs, and a .301 batting average. If that kills my team, so be it! These are the kind of stats that I am looking for in the early draft rounds. I prefer hitters close to .300 with the potential of 10+ stolen bases. Both Braun and Hamilton fit the mold, so I am off to a great start in the draft.

Round 3 is where is all went wrong for me. I had 5 of the following players in my queue: Beltran, Kemp, Carlos Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Soriano. With 5 picks before my 3rd pick, like dominos, they all fell and my queue was completely empty. At that point there was nobody on the board that I wanted. In hindsight, maybe I should have drafted David Ortiz, but his injury risk scares me. I initially took C.C. Sabathia, but after Geoff Stein saw that my draft was on auto select and I ran out of time, he allowed me to make a switch to Adrian Gonzalez. (Thanks again Geoff, as this happened at least one more time during the draft). Gonzalez is another power hitter and is projected by CBS Sports to hit 33 home runs and have 110 RBIs. I also like to draft both my 1B and 3B positions early in the draft so drafting Gonzalez in round 3 fit my objective.

In round 4, I was hoping that Ortiz would make it back to me, but he did not. Nick Markakis and potentially Carl Crawford was another option, but I went against my normal tendencies and picked C.C. Sabathia. CBS Sports has him ranked #1 overall in their pitching rankings so I found great value with this pick.

By round 5, all of the power hitters had been drafted, so I was looking for the best "hybrid" player on the board. I define "hybrids" as players that can hit at least 20 home runs and steals at least 20 bases. I was looking for Alex Rios, Curtis Granderson, and Nate McLouth. Both Rios and Granderson were taken a couple of picks before my 5th pick, so I gladly drafted Nate McLouth.

I always try to draft a top 5 closer by rounds 5-7 and Joe Nathan was the pick to click in round 6.

Round 7 was another unexpected round for me. Picking 9th in the odd rounds, I had to wait until 16 picks went off the board. Good players like Votto, Abreu, Huff, Victor Martinez, Furcal, Ludwick, Pence, and finally Vernon Wells all went during those 16 picks. Instead of taking a hitter, I found value with drafting Roy Oswalt as my #2 starting pitcher. CBS Sports ranks Oswalt as their 10th ranked pitcher overall.

Round 8 meant that I had to draft a hitter. I only had 6 short picks in even rounds before my next pick. I drafted Jose Valverde as my #2 relief pitcher and was very happy with that draft pick. He has been very dependable over the past couple of years.

With pick 10, I still feel that there were no hitters worth drafting during this round, so I went with A.J. Burnett. CBS Sports ranks Oswalt as their 9th ranked pitcher overall. I now have drafted both the #1 and #2 starting pitchers for the New York Yankees in the first 10 rounds of my draft. This is truly the George Costanza draft to this point. I've done the opposite than I normally do at this point in my drafts.

I proceed to take yet another starting pitcher in round 11 with Javier Vazquez. I've always like Vazquez, as long as you can stomach his ERA which tends to hover around 4.00. He's in Atlanta this year, so this was just as much a "Homer" pick as they get.

In round 12 I had to land the best power hitter on the board. I drafted Brad Hawpe of Colorado. He should be good for 25-30 home runs and 100 RBIs.

In round 13, it was too hard to pass up on drafting Justin Verlander. I know he had a down year last season, but I am feeling confident that he will rebound in 2009. He offered great value in round 13.

Huston Street is another pitcher that I think can rebound in 2009. A change of scenery to Colorado will do him a lot of good. I think he can save 30 games in 2009.

Now that I had solidified my pitching, my strategy was to obtain a 4th closer but only right before they had all been drafted. This typically occurs by round 15, but ironically Heath Bell of San Diego was drafted in round 20.
In rounds 15 and 16, I drafted my first catcher with Bengie Molina and my corner infielder in Paul Konerko. Paul is an excellent pick in round 16 as he can hit 25 home runs and have 80-90 RBIs.

In round 17, I drafted my 4th closer in Joey Devine. I think he will be the closer over Brad Ziegler who was drafted in round 22. I'd rather have 4 closers than 6 starting pitchers as I feel I can do more good with ERA, WHIP, and Saves, versus wins and strikeouts. That has always been a draft strategy that has worked well for me.

Round 18 - 23 were spent drafting all hitters to fill in my remaining positions. At this point I was looking for either hybrid players or strictly stolen base players. I drafted Ricky Weeks, Eric Byrnes, Melvin Mora, Kelly Shoppach, Edgar Renteria, and Kaz Matsui to complete my team.

One glaring weakness is batting average. I am projecting somewhere between .274 and .277 which will certainly put me near the bottom of the standings. In these types of leagues, the goal is to put together a team that will produce 300 home runs and 150 RBIs. Using CBS Sports projections, they project 300 home runs and 139 stolen bases, so I am in the ball park.

I will project that I will compete in the league in 2009, but not sure that I will win this league at this point. But hey, that is why we play the games, make trades, and utilize the waiver wire!